Friends and Clients,
For our Bella Casa brokerage meetings this week I reviewed the sales statistics which have been very encouraging throughout 2012 (and ought to motivate us greatly for 2013). One statistic was so mind-blowing that I made a contest out of it – only 2 of 25 Realtors® even got close to the right answer. There are currently 241 pending sales (accepted offers) in Yamhill County!!! I might have guessed as many as 75 for this time of year in light of the advances in 2012, and likely 45 any other time during the past five years. This is an amazingly encouraging number.
The election is over and within a couple of months we should see if that has any effect on the housing market. Remember, the housing market has been improving for over a year without any significant help from the politicians or the economy so far. The big question mark relates to the sustainability of this progress. For this October report (pre-election) one can see that the news got better than anything we had seen in all 2012.
Summary for the Portland Metropolitan Area (including Yamhill County)
1. Closed Sales (solds):
- 42.7% higher than October 2011
- Up 11% from September
- o Year to date compared to 2011 YTD, 20.4% increase
- Highest closed sales for October since 2006
2. Pending Sales (accepted offer)
- 15.9% higher than in October 2011
- Up 5.8% from September
- Year to date compared to 2011 YTD, 17.6% increase.
3. New Listings (it is a good time to list your property for sale)
- Down 1% from October 2011
- Down 1.5% from September
- Down 3.3% YTD compared with YTD 2011
4. Pricing: (reflects both increased prices and more higher end sales)
- Average Sales Price: +3.7%;
- Median Price: +5.2%
5. Inventory is down to 3.8 month supply
- 4-6 months is considered a balanced market
- The 5 year high was almost 20 months!
6. Market Time (days on market- DOM) is down 21% from last year; was 144 days now down to 102 days
The Affordability Index at the end of the report is a quarterly look at the last decade in light of current buying conditions. Clearly this summer offered the most affordable conditions in more than 10 years and likely back much further than that. Considering that since the Great Depression, housing prices have doubled every decade; this is a remarkable reversal of recent history and an opportunity to get into the real estate market.
Are Prices Rising Now?
Yes, in some places for some kinds of property. According to Santa Ana, California-based CoreLogic, Portland-area home prices increased on average 4.1% compared to a year ago. In our area, there are shortages of homes in certain price ranges (typically lower ranges) and for homes in certain communities (e.g. Newberg). If the trend continues, we will see more and more price ranges begin to inch up on pricing. This is certainly better than continuing to fall.
Residential Rural Properties (view October sales):
While the good news is good for everyone, there are many clients who are not yet participating in the recovery. I am focusing on some target markets through the end of this year to help our clients understand the dynamics which continue to develop. 125 rural residential properties of all sizes (2+acres) sold in all price ranges this year so far. 32 are pending right now and another 215 are competing for a sale. At this rate of sale, only about half of the active listings will sell next year – but remember, there will be even more and new competition on the market in the New Year. Pricing, condition, and location are still crucial issues for a sale if you have a rural property.
We have seen improvement in the number of showings of rural properties this year but we still need to see more demand. Much of the demand comes from out of state buyers and as their markets improve, we will experience better sales for our rural properties. The next couple of months will be important for re-assessing salability for the coming spring and summer markets. Rural sales remain challenging for now. We are glad to provide specific information for you for the asking!
We are always grateful for your referrals to your family, friends, neighbors, and co-workers. We can help buyers take advantage of excellent opportunities while they last. We are eager to market and promote properties for our sellers. We know that we offer exceptional professional services which increase the odds of a sale and a higher price. Historic buying opportunities should motivate sellers to list and buyers to pull the trigger on a purchase. Talk with us about why that is the case and how to make an excellent purchase safely.
Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
Bella Casa Real Estate Group
Cell: 503-310-9147 Fax: 866-281-6653