Clients, Colleagues, and Friends,
2018 is off to a very good start!
The weather has been accommodating to real estate (unlike last year); the economy seems to be hitting on all cylinders (consumer confidence is high; unemployment is historically low), and the real estate numbers for the Portland metroplex are impressive. Pending sales (accepted offers) in the first month of the year are up 16.1% over last January and 31.5% over December. Market fundamentals seem strong. There is plenty of money for lending but we still have reasonable restraints in the lending industry. The market has leveled out some but it is still an active marketplace with good in it for both buyers and sellers. We anticipate a successful year and have no obvious reason for doubting this.
What about interest rates?
Yes, rates are rising and are now in the mid 4% range for a 30 year fixed loan. Pundits have been predicting rates would rise for the better part of 10 years, and with good reason. In the dark years rates drastically dropped to levels that no one ever dared dream. For many years talk of a 6% mortgage was beyond comprehension (even proof of insanity), but we came to experience rates down into the 3-4% range. The truth is that rates have been kept low artificially. Seniors, in particular, have paid the price for this. It is about time to let the markets determine rates instead of a committee of people. Truly, we have nothing to complain about regarding recent rates. In the 1970s rates went from 7% up to almost 19% in 1981!!! Leveling out in the 1980s at 10%, they dropped in the 1990s to between 6.5% and 11%. We have been in single digits since then and as low as 3.3% for a 30 year loan. I think it is finally clear and sure that mortgage interest rates will float up this year. The good about that? Since interest rates effect mortgage payments more than anything, we believe we will see a surge of buying during this year as buyers try to lock-in lower rates before they are gone ‘forever’…
What about inflation?
Everyone must know that we already have dramatic inflation. It might not show in the official numbers yet, but everyone, every company, and everything you want to do and buy, is dramatically more expensive than just a couple of years ago. Many people and businesses are making up for the dark years and for many it is about ‘whatever the markets will bear’. Right now people are feeling flush with hope and money and are willing to spend more for goods and services. The statistics will catch-up to reality but inflation usually follows an improving economy and market, especially when it has been held down so long. Let’s hope that we do not see rapid inflation that we saw in the early and mid-1980s.
Bella Casa Real Estate has done very well in the improving marketplace and remains a top leader in sales of all kinds of properties, and for buyers and sellers. We continue to practice business principles of integrity that catapulted us to top office in our area during the dark years. We remain committed to extreme service, which exceeds the expectations of our industry. The client’s interest is always first. While we enjoy success, we are deeply grateful for your referrals to friends and family, co-workers and neighbors, and other people you talk with. (See the attachment of the final sales numbers for Yamhill County in 2017)
It is the LISTNG SEASON
The earlier in the year you get your property on the market, the better-off the seller will be. There is less competition, more enthusiasm, and increased demand for the best products before others score the best property. Remember, by August and September, our markets will get very slow; that is the normal cycle…
Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
207 NE 19th Street, Suite 100
McMinnville, oR 97128
1002 N Springbrook Road, Suite C
Newberg, OR 97132