Friends and Clients,
It has been a good year for real estate; we have nothing to complain about. Worry, well that may be a different story…
There is reason to pause and ask, What is happening? November fell silent, especially in our area, and this slow-down continues in December. Seasonal cycle? Election? Fiscal Cliff? All who could buy now did? – Perhaps a combination of all the above? I think time will tell…
In pending and closed sales our numbers dropped over 21% just since last month! While the numbers compared to a full year ago (2011) are still positive, instead of 43% better in October for closed sales, we are only 14% better in November (transactions which were generated in September and October). We also did not exceed the closed sales of 2009 in the 5 year purview during this month. Pending sales reveal more of the immediate mood – we are up only 2.7%, November over last November, but were up 16% October to last October. We exceeded the pending numbers every month in 2012 over 2011, but this month it was by the skin of our teeth. This is significant.
What we have been feeling and experiencing anecdotally over the past 8 weeks is now validated by hard numbers. In Yamhill County, for example, our pending sales were actually better last November than this November. Year-to-date we have improved pending sales of 16.3%, but in November we not only screeched to a halt but had some red ink as well (down 1.5%). Whatever is going on, something troubling hit us in November after a great run from June through October.
Summary for the Portland Metropolitan Area (including Yamhill County)
Closed Sales (solds):
- 13.9% higher than November 2011
- Down 21% from October
- Year to date compared to 2011 YTD, 19.9% increase
Pending Sales (accepted offer)
- 2.7% higher than in November 2011
- Down 21.5% from October
- Year to date compared to 2011 YTD, 17.1% increase.
New Listings (it is a good time to list your property for sale)
- Down 17.3% from November 2011
- Down 31% from October
- Down 4.2% YTD compared with YTD 2011
Pricing: (reflects both increased prices and more higher end sales)
- Average Sales Price: +3.9% (another slight improvement)
- Median Price: +5.4% (another slight improvement)
Inventory is up to a 4.2 month supply from last month’s 3.8 mo supply
- 4-6 months is considered a balanced market
- The 5 year high was almost 20 months!
Market Time (days on market – DOM)
DOM is down 21.5% from last year; was 143 days now down to 112 days
What should we think???
During 2012, the nation-wide housing market experienced significant improvement. There was little else in the economy to give this expectation and not enough change in unemployment to support this kind of recovery. It happened all the same. We have been down since the summer of 2007 (2006 in some markets like California). Real estate is cyclical. We are long overdue for a return to normalcy. Many people believe that the housing market took us down and the housing market will bring us out of this very low cycle.
While we need employment and a confident business sector to sustain recovery, there are some good things happening. In our own area we are seeing immense investment in the Hillsboro and Aloha area by Intel. Now we hear Nike is preparing for a campus blow out expansion in Beaverton. Both bring high income jobs but also spawn healthy support jobs in the areas around them.
We are planning and preparing for a better housing market in 2013. Helping our sellers move their stubborn properties, or get out from untenable situations, or move on with their plans or their dreams, is our highest responsibility. The good that began this year, we trust will expand opportunities for sales in 2013.
It is a joy to help buyers take advantage of some of the best buyer conditions in our lifetimes. First time home-buyers are getting great and affordable opportunities. Once again, people can move out into the county without risking their retirement. People at all levels once again have good hope of building equity. New home construction will soon expand from the trickle and become profitable again. This will affect buildable lots and land.
In the almost 6 years Bella Casa Real Estate Group has been in existence we have grown rapidly and developed broadly. We have matured into a wonderful family of many of the finest Realtors® in our area. Our professionals and their sales achievements in the face of relentless trials and challenges have proved their business and sales acumen. The trust the public has put in us is sobering and the reputation we have built is our most prized asset. We are working on plans for significant expansion again this year and thank you for your contribution to our success. We promise a return for your trust with excellent service and the smartest protection and negotiations. Your referrals to your family, friends, neighbors, and co-workers are much appreciated.
We will still have one more month of reports to analyze but in a few days we will cross the threshold into 2013. Happy New Year!
Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
The McCreith Team | Bella Casa Real Estate Group
Cell: 503-310-9147 Fax: 866-281-6653