Eight months of good news for housing in the greater Portland area! The trend of good news continues in our local housing markets.
What exactly is improving?
- The number of buyers in the marketplace who are searching and buying in a wide, balanced, range of pricing shows promise of breaking up the log-jam of houses for sale.
- The number of new pending sales is at a level not seen since our housing crisis began in the summer of 2007.
- The number of closed sales is the highest in 5 years for April (excepting the tax credit deadline in April of 2010 which was artificial).
2. Time on the market (DOM) is down 18.3% compared to last year.
3. Inventory is down to a 4.7 month supply, last seen in June of 2007. This affects supply and demand and causes pricing to firm up.
4. New housing starts are up as conditions now allow builders to address very low new home inventories.
Market Action Distressed Sales 1 Qtr 2012
What is still challenging?
1. The recovery is uneven and unpredictable; think of fits and starts. This can be frustrating for many sellers.
2. The strength of the recovery is in Portland. While felt even in our suburban and rural markets, it will take some time yet to fully radiate to us.
3. Pricing, on average, is still down, but it is definitely flattening out. Median and Average prices are down just 1% from a year ago. Actual depreciation is somewhat higher than that but it indicates that we are on the bottom (at least now).
4. The recovery may be fragile and vulnerable to some worsening economic conditions (thank you, Europe) and who knows what effect the elections in November will play. If this trend survives the elections, it will be at least a fairly strong recovery.
The best news is the Affordability Index which is a quarterly report on the last page of the Market Action Report. Head and shoulders above every year for 10 years, this is the most affordable time to buy real estate in Yamhill County. Buyers do not miss this opportunity if you can afford to take advantage of it!
See the attachments for the report plus a distressed properties report and reports for Yamhill County specifics. Note that the inventory number for our large rural county is still 9.85 months, but that is also improving.
Above all, thank you to our Sellers for patience and for entrusting your property to us. We take our work extremely seriously and make sure our tasks are always fused with personal concern for youpersonally and your needs and goals. It is more than a job to us!
We find particular joy and satisfaction in helping our buyers right now. Those who can buy are likely making some of the best investments they will see in their lifetimes. It is a wonderful reward to see a buyer close a property at costs lower than they ever dreamed possible! Remember, however, that your interest rates affect your monthly payments profoundly. Mortgage interest rates are tied to the bond markets (long-term lending). When the economic news is bad, investors flee to bonds for safety and interest rates fall. Right now, interest rates are at historic lows (well under 4%) which reflects fears about the economy. But be forewarned, when there is economic recovery and better expectations for the future, money flows to stocks and other investments and bond rates must climb to attract investors. That means mortgage interest rates will climb with continued good news. It is not controlled by the Federal Reserve or anyone else; it is the financial markets’ natural ebb and flow.
Your referrals of your friends and family, co-workers and neighbors, to us are precious. We will take excellent care of each and every one of them as we aim to please both you and your personal connections.
As always, glad to have your thoughts and thank you to many who send relevant information and links.
Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
The McCreith Team
Bella Casa Real Estate Group
Cell: 503-310-9147 Fax: 866-281-6653