View the full April 2011 Portland Metro Market Conditions Report with all graphs.
Sales professionals are by nature optimistic; they have to be! After four years of a housing depression, those who remain in the industry are either insane or are buoyed by their internal optimism. “Improvement is just around the corner” is what drives us and our survival means much better opportunities in the future. We will be all the wiser, we have gained an education in things we never thought we would need, and there will be less competition with a higher percentage of true professionals as colleagues. “How much longer could this possibly last?” is a question which can only be asked by one who believes in a better tomorrow.
The numbers in the attached report and below are deflating nonetheless. We noted a couple of months ago that 2011 looks like another lost year for new construction. Now the resale numbers look flat at best as we approach the center point of the traditional selling season. A few said from the beginning of this that recovery might not come until 2012 but we thought they were crazy. If we had believed them we might not be here today.
However, looking at the charts give us just enough hope to keep-on-keeping on. When you look particularly at the 4 year chart for closed sales it is clear that we are doing better than post-meltdown 2009. We have to get past June to evaluate the numbers with last year because of the tax credit rush at this time last year. The Affordability Index (a quarterly report) remains extremely attractive at levels not seen in a decade. The median and average sales reports for this year show that we are getting sales at higher price points and this matches our anecdotal evidence of more showings and some sales in price ranges we have not seen in a long time.
Here is a quick summary:
Comparisons of this April with April 2010:
- 17% fewer closed sales
- 33% fewer accepted offers (pending sales)
- 34.2% fewer new listings
- Median price down 5.2%
- Average price down 8.4%
- It was expected that closed sales and pending sales would be lower than one year ago when the final month of the $8,000 tax credit was skewing the numbers (33% lower for accepted offers points to the surge of offers at the deadline on April 30, 2010). Although we wish we could see a greatly improved market this year, even with that consideration, this year’s performance is poor.
Year-to-date 2011 vs. ytd 2010:
- 6.6% fewer closed sales
- 19.7% fewer accepted offers (pending sales)
- 30.9% fewer new listings
- Median price down 10.4%
- Average price down 8.1%
- Clearly we are seeing that 2011 is not an improved market compared with this time last year.
Month-to-month: Comparing April to March of this year: Pending sales and closed sales are down only slightly while median and average prices are actually up modestly.
The rate of sales for current inventory has remained stable at 7.2 months not because sales are better but because new listings are down 34.2% from a year ago, and many sellers have thrown in the towel on trying to sell. Still, less supply is better for price stabilization.
At Bella Casa Real Estate Group…
We have re-tooled and reworked our strategies for a completely different market- the real world. Our optimism continues to motivate us to get the job done. 194 homes sold last month in the areas we normally sell. In spite of the odds, one of those sales could be yours in the next month. People have to sell and buy for a large variety of reasons; all you need is one buyer for your property. For buyers, you continue to have the best opportunities since the 1990s. Don’t miss it waiting for the ‘bottom.’
We are glad to assist you anyway possible and we greatly appreciate your referrals to friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers and colleagues. We cannot control the marketplace, but we can control the level of our expertise, service, and knowledge which we promise to put to work for you and those you know.
Randy McCreith, Principal Broker
Bella Casa Real Estate Group
Cell: 503-310-9147 Fax: 866-281-6653
McMinnville (19th & Hwy 99) Newberg (College & Hwy 99)
207 NE 19th Street, Suite 100 700 E 1st Street, Suite 100
McMinnville OR 97128 Newberg OR 97132
Buy. Sell. Be Happy.
Who We Are
We are Yamhill County’s most experienced, high-achieving, and successful real estate brokerage. We are real estate specialists in luxury properties, rural properties, equestrian properties, new construction, and residential and commercial properties. Contact us for a free customized home value analysis.